As of December 30, 2024, a deformation data indicates continued magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi.
The likelihood of a new magma intrusion and potential eruption is expected to rise once the volume of magma matches the amount that left the magma region during the intrusion and eruption on November 20. Geodetic modeling estimates this threshold volume to be between 12 and 15 million cubic meters.
Currently, magma discharge rate is estimated at just over 3 m³/s, comparable to the rate observed prior to the last eruption. At this rate, the magma volume beneath Svartsengi is projected to reach 12 million m³ by late January and approximately 13.5 million m³ by early February. Consequently, the probability of a magma intrusion and potential eruption along the Sundhnúkur crater row is expected to increase as of late January.
These projections rely on calculated magma inflow rates over time, and even minor variations in these rates could affect the estimated timing of a potential eruption.
Source: Icelandic Met Office volcano activity update 7 January 2025
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