Svartsengi volcano update: eruption is likely to occur at any time

Time series data from the GPS station SENG at Svartsengi, starting from November 11, 2023, is shown for north, east, and vertical directions (top, middle, and bottom images, respectively). The bottom time series indicates land uplift in millimeters, with data detected in late August highlighted by a green dot. Red vertical lines mark the timings of the last five eruptions (December 18, 2023; January 14, February 8, March 16, and May 29, 2024). Blue vertical lines indicate the timing of magma intrusions that did not lead to a volcanic eruption (November 10, 2023, and March 2, 2024) (image: IMO)

The seismic activity has remained relatively stable over the past few days, with around 60 to 90 earthquakes occurring daily.
Most of these earthquakes are minor, registering below magnitude M 1.0, and are centered in the area between Mt. Stóra-Skógfell and Grindavík. This pattern is consistent with the activity observed over the past two weeks.

The ground inflation and magma accumulation have also continued at a steady pace. Model calculations now estimate that the volume of magma beneath Svartsengi has surpassed the levels observed before the last eruption, which began on May 29.

When comparing the current activity to previous eruptions and magma injections, the ongoing seismic activity and uplift clearly indicate that magma intrusion may culminate in an imminent eruption at any time. If the pattern from the last eruption holds, further magma accumulation may be necessary for another 2-3 weeks before a new eruption starts.

Source: Icelandic Met Office volcano activity update 17 August 2024