As of today, the estimated magma recharge to the Svartsengi reservoir has reached the lower limit of the volume that was erupted during the first week of the recent eruption.
The limit is approximately 13 million cubic meters, with the upper limit at 19 million cubic meters of magma.
Assuming a similar volume of magma needs to be recharged to build up enough pressure to trigger the next event, geodetic modeling indicates a very high probability of an impending eruption to be occur within the next three weeks.
However, if a higher volume change is required, similar to the ~20 million cubic meters reached prior to the 29 May event, this will likely be achieved within the next three to four weeks. This estimate assumes that the inflow rate of magma from depth remains constant from today.
Updated hazard map
Recent data analysis of possible fissure openings during previous Sundhnúks eruptions indicates a systematic southwest migration. Considering this trend and the significant fault movement within Grindavík since November 2023, the likelihood of lava extrusion in Zone 4 is now considered higher for future eruptions.
As a result, the likelihood of fissure openings, lava flows, and gas pollution in Zone 4 has been raised to medium, aligning with the hazard assessment in Zone 3.
Despite this adjustment, the overall hazard level in Zone 4 remains considerable (orange).
The hazard map is valid until 23 July, unless there is a change in activity.
Source: Icelandic Met Office volcano activity update 17 July 2024