The Icelandic Met Office just published their latest assessment of the situation: the possibility of an eruption in the near future remains unchanged and is high, even though the past two days have been calmer on the surface.
„Since midnight, 700 earthquakes have been recorded across the magma intrusion, the largest being an event of magnitude 3.1 at Hagafell.
Last night, there were also earthquakes at Kleifarvatn, the largest being a 3.8 magnitude event at 9.09pm local time.
The vast majority of earthquakes are in the area of the magma intrusion. Most of them are small and at a depth of 3-5 km.
„Measurements show continued land movement, consistent with magma still flowing into the intrusion. It was estimated that the rate of magma arriving into the intrusion at depth was 75 cubic meters per second on 12 and 13 November, and that the magma is currently at around 800 m depth. These numbers are based on model calculations and are subject to uncertainty.
„The main focus on the monitoring of the seismicity lies in the area of the intrusion, and Grindavík. New GPS stations have been installed in the town and the surrounding area. They show that the crack that has formed there is still active.
„The probability of an eruption is therefore still high. In the event of an eruption, the most likely location is, still, along the intrusion. There is no evidence of otherwise in the data.“ (adapted from a translation by RUV)