Recent GPS deformation data continue to detected the uplift in the Svartsengi area, although the rate of the ground swell has slowed in recent weeks.
Scientists are currently evaluating when the likelihood of a new magma intrusion or eruption might rise. Their assessment is based on the assumption that the same volume of magma must accumulate beneath Svartsengi as in previous events along the Sundhnúkur crater row.
Experts at the Icelandic Meteorological Office are revising the possible scenarios, including the estimated volume of magma needed beneath Svartsengi to trigger another dike formation or eruption.
While the deformation data indicate continued uplift, short-term daily fluctuations are common and may not reflect true changes in magma inflow. These variations can result from weather conditions, measurement inaccuracies, or natural variability and usually have little impact on the broader trend. Therefore, scientists emphasize the importance of analyzing weekly or longer-term data to accurately understand ongoing geological processes.
The seismic activity is still being detected along the dike that formed on April 1, though the number of earthquakes has decreased since the eruption ended. Over the past two weeks, several dozen earthquakes have been recorded daily on average.
The hazard assessment map has been updated and will remain in effect until May 20 unless new developments occur.
Source: Icelandic Meteorological Office volcano activity update 9 May 2025