The Icelandic Met Office, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, and Civil Defense have jointly released a map depicting potential scenarios if lava were to reach and enter the sea.
At 18:30 local time yesterday, the southern lava flow front has been less than 250 meters to cut Suðurstrandarveð main road in the south. The current magma supply rate has been approx. 12 m/h (yesterday afternoon). If the lava velocity remains unchanged, it will likely reach the Suðurstrandarveð main road in about less 20 hours (at the time of the IMO update 18:30 local time). In order to reach the sea entry, there is another 350 meters to the sea from the road.
If the lava makes it to the ocean, scientists expect life-threatening conditions within a 500-meter radius. The wider the radius, the lower the risk.
Once lava reach sea, interaction with water is so explosively that forms abundant acidic steam-gas emissions, so-called laze (lava haze). Because laze can be blown downwind, its corrosive effects can extend far beyond the actual ocean entry area.
Source: Icelandic Met Office volcano activity update 18 March 2024